May’s Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment is 4.0% up from 3.9% in April.
Adjusted Unemployment ticked up slightly in May as we enter the “slower” pre-summer months.
Unemployment Levels Since 2005
| Date | Unadjusted U3 | Adjusted U3 |
| May 2024 | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| April 2024 | 3.5% | 3.9% |
| March 2024 | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| February 2024 | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| January 2024 | 4.1% | 3.7% |
| December 2023 | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| November 2023 | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| October 2023 | 3.6% | 3.9% |
| September 2023 | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| August 2023 | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| July 2023 | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| June 2023 | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| May 2023 | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| April 2023 | 3.1% | 3.4% |
| March 2023 | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| February 2023 | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| January 2023 | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| December 2022 | 3.3% | 3.5% |
| November 2022 | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| October 2022 | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| September 2022 | 3.3% | 3.5% |
| August 2022 | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| July 2022 | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| June 2022 | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| May 2022 | 3.4% | 3.6% |
| April 2022 | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| March 2022 | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| February 2022 | 4.1% | 3.8% |
| January 2022 | 4.4% | 4.0% |
| December 2021 | 3.7% | 3.9% |
| November 2021 | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| October 2021 | 4.3% | 4.6% |
| September 2021 | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| August 2021 | 5.3% | 5.2% |
| July 2021 | 5.7% | 5.4% |
| June 2021 | 6.1% | 5.9% |
| May 2021 | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| April 2021 | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| March 2021 | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| February 2021 | 6.6% | 6.2% |
| January 2021 | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| December 2020 | 6.5% | 6.7% |
| November 2020 | 6.4% | 6.7% |
| October 2020 | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| September 2020 | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| August 2020 | 8.5% | 11.1% |
| July 2020 | 10.5% | 13.3% |
| June 2020 | 11.2% | 11.1% |
| May 2020 | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| April 2020 | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| March 2020 | 4.5% | 4.4% |
| February 2020 | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| January 2020 | 4.0% | 3.6% |
The worst months (highest unemployment) are usually January, June, and July. The best months (lowest unemployment) are typically November, and March or April.
Due to the Virus, we can also see that the 2020 numbers started the year much better than the 2010 numbers (during the post 2008 recession), i.e., 3.6% vs. 9.7% in 2010. Then 2020 got worse quickly, i.e., 14.7% in 2020 vs. 9.8% in 2010, but 2020 improved quickly while 2010 did not. Adjusted U-3 ended 2010 at 9.4% and 2020 at 6.7%.
| 2009 | 2010 | 2020 | ||||
| UnadjustedU3 | AdjustedU3 | UnadjustedU3 | AdjustedU3 | UnadjustedU3 | AdjustedU3 | |
| Jan | 8.5% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Feb | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| Mar | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 4.5%* | 4.4%* |
| Apr | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 14.4%* | 14.7%* |
| May | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 13.0%* | 13.3%* |
| June | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.2%* | 11.1%* |
| July | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.5%* | 10.2%* |
| Aug | 9.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.5%* | 8.4%* |
| Sep | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| Oct | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| Nov | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% |
| Dec | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% |
*COVID-19 Shutdown
Peak in Blue
See: The current Unemployment Rate Chart below.
According to the BLS Commissioner’s report:
“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 272,000 in May, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in several industries, led by health care; government; leisure and hospitality; and professional, scientific, and technical services.
Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 6.6 million, changed little in May. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 3.7 percent, and the number of unemployed people was 6.1 million.”
You can read the full BLS report here.
As usual, they are talking about “Seasonally Adjusted Jobs”.
Looking at the Unadjusted Establishment Survey report we see…
Originally the BLS reported employment of158.016 million for April
which they adjusted slightly to 158.001 million in May.
They are currently reporting 158.918 million jobs for May which is actually an increase of 902,000 jobs based on their original numbers or 917,000 based on their new numbers for April. The LFPR was down from 62.7% to 62.5%.
ADP® provides an independent (non-government) estimate of private-sector employment and pay, based on data derived from ADP client payrolls.
ADP: Private employers added 152,000 jobs in May
- Job gains were slower in May due to a steep decline in manufacturing. Leisure and hospitality also showed weaker hiring.
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Chart 1948-Present
Current US Unemployment Rate Chart
Unemployment is still below the previous “yellow zone” lows of 1960, 1973, 1979, 1989, 2006-7, but moved above the pre-Covid lows of 2019, and the January and April lows of 2023. Unemployment is still within the “green zone” in the chart above.
Before the COVID-19 spike, February 2020’s 3.5% Seasonally Adjusted U-3 unemployment levels were excellent, i.e., just a hair above the 1969 lows of 3.4%. The only break below 3.4% was all the way back in 1953 (during the Korean War). The COVID worldwide spike took unemployment to unprecedented high levels, but unemployment has returned to the “excellent” range.
Previous Record Low Unemployment Rates (Seasonally Adjusted U-3)
If we consider anything 4% or below as “low” we have had a few “low” stretches, as shown in the table below.
(4% or below in Green)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
| 1950 | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 1951 | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% |
| 1952 | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
| 1953 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% |
| 1954 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| 1955 | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 1956 | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% |
| 1957 | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% |
| 1958 | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 1965 | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 1966 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| 1967 | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% |
| 1968 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| 1969 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 1970 | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 1999 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| 2000 | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| 2001 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 2018 | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| 2019 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 2020 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 14.7% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| 2021 | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| 2024 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% |
The following video gives a good explanation of the definition of unemployment.
Employment and Unemployment Numbers:
From the table below, we can see that employment and unemployment numbers are close to Pre-COVID numbers. Employment numbers are above February 2020 numbers, but since then, the Civilian Population has increased dramatically.
| Unadj. U-6 | Unadj. U-3 | Adjusted U-3 | Employment (in Millions) | Civilian Population(in Millions) | Monthly Civilian Pop.Increase | |
| January 2012 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 131.098 | 242.269 | 1,685,000*** |
| January 2013 | 15.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 133.064 | 244.663 | 211,000 |
| January 2014 | 13.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 135.471 | 246.915 | 170,000 |
| January 2015 | 12.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 138.493 | 249.723 | 696,000*** |
| January 2016 | 10.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 141.072 | 252.397 | 461,000 |
| January 2017 | 10.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 143.377 | 254.082 | -660,000** |
| January 2018 | 8.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 145.412 | 256.780 | 671,000*** |
| January 2019 | 8.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 147.879* | 258.239 | -649,000** |
| January 2020 | 7.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 150.055 | 259.502* | -679,000** |
| February 2020 | 7.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 150.968 | 259.628 | 126,000 |
| March 2020 | 8.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 149.952 | 259.758 | 130,000 |
| April 2020 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 14.7% | 130.253 | 259.896 | 138,000 |
| May 2020 | 20.7% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 133.422 | 260.047 | 151,000 |
| June 2020 | 18.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 138.501 | 260.204 | 157,000 |
| July 2020 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 139.105 | 260.373 | 169,000 |
| August 2020 | 14.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 140.727 | 260.558 | 185,000 |
| September 2020 | 12.4% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 141.958 | 260.742 | 184,000 |
| October 2020 | 11.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 143.565 | 260.925 | 183,000 |
| November 2020 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 144.115 | 261.085 | 160,000 |
| December 2020 | 11.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 143.605 | 261.230 | 145,000 |
| January 2021 | 12.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 140.974 | 260.851* | -379,000** |
| February 2021 | 11.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 142.129 | 260.918 | 67,000 |
| March 2021 | 10.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 143.308 | 261.003 | 85,000 |
| April 2021 | 9.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 144.402 | 261.103 | 100,000 |
| May 2021 | 9.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 145.392 | 261.210 | 105,000 |
| June 2021 | 10.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 146.626 | 261.338 | 128,000 |
| July 2021 | 9.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 146.619 | 261.469 | 131,000 |
| August 2021 | 8.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 147.159 | 261.611 | 142,000 |
| September 2021 | 8.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 147.917 | 261.766 | 155,000 |
| October 2021 | 7.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 149.605 | 261.908 | 142,000 |
| November 2021 | 7.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 150.543 | 262.029 | 121,000 |
| December 2021 | 7.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 150.740 | 262.136 | 107,000 |
| January 2022 | 7.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 147.932 | 263.202 | 1,066,000*** |
| February 2022 | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 149.606 | 263.324 | 122,000 |
| March 2022 | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 150.411 | 263.444 | 120,000 |
| April 2022 | 6.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 151.434 | 263.559 | 115,000 |
| May 2022 | 6.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 152.264 | 263.679 | 120,000 |
| June 2022 | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 153.175 | 263.835 | 156,000 |
| July 2022 | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 152.813 | 264.012 | 177,000 |
| August 2022 | 7.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 153.208 | 264.184 | 172,000 |
| September 2022 | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 153.730 | 264.356 | 172,000 |
| October 2022 | 6.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 154.936 | 264.535 | 179,000 |
| November 2022 | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 155.519 | 264.708 | 173,000 |
| December 2022 | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 155.211 | 264.844 | 136,000 |
| January 2023 | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 152.688 | 265.962 | 1,118,000*** |
| February 2023 | 7.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 153.817 | 266.112 | 150,000 |
| March 2023 | 6.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 154.253 | 266.272 | 160,000 |
| April 2023 | 6.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 155.201 | 266.443 | 171,000 |
| May 2023 | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 156.132 | 266.618 | 175,000 |
| June 2023 | 7.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 156.842 | 266.801 | 183,000 |
| July 2023 | 7.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 155.981 | 267.002 | 201,000 |
| August 2023 | 7.2% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 156.355 | 267.213 | 211,000 |
| September 2023 | 6.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 156.845 | 267.428 | 215,000 |
| October 2023 | 6.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 157.878 | 267.642 | 214,000 |
| November 2023 | 6.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 158.347 | 267.822 | 180,000 |
| December 2023 | 7.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 158.269 | 267.991 | 169,000 |
| January 2024 | 8.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 155.432 | 267.540 | -451,000** |
| February 2024 | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 156.551 | 267.711 | 173,000 |
| March 2024 | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 157.210 | 267.884 | 171,000 |
| April 2024 | 6.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 158.001 | 268.066 | 182,000 |
| May 2024 | 7.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 158.918 | 268.248 | 182,000 |
| Unadj. U-6 | Unadj. U-3 | Adjusted U-3 | Employment (in Millions) | Civilian Population | Civ. Pop. Increase | |
| 1mo. Change | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.917 | 182,000 | |
| 12 mo. Change | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 2.786 | 1,630,000 | |
| Since Feb 2020 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 7.950 | 8,620,000 |
Note: Due to COVID restrictions, employment dropped rapidly in 2020, but then employment rebounded. If we compare current employment levels to those prior to COVID (Feb 2020), we see Unadjusted U-6 is the same asit was in February 2020. And Unadjusted U-3 is 0.1% above what it was in February 2020. The number of people employed is 7.048 million higher, but the Civilian Population is also 8.438 million higher.
*Population control adjustments to the CPS adjusted by BLS.
**Due to the BLS syncing its data with the census bureau, which happens once a year (in January) and can be a huge change, so that doesn’t really mean that all of the increase or decrease occurred during January.
Read more about how Employment and Unemployment numbers compare.
*Note: January 2017 is the first time since we have been tracking the Civilian Population that we have seen a decrease. January 2016 saw an increase of 461,000. The BLS says that they readjust their numbers every January to match the Census Bureau numbers.
**Note: January 2017, 2019, 2020 & 2021 all showed a decrease not on an annual basis but on a monthly basis, as the numbers reported last month are adjusted to correspond to the Census Bureau data.
*** January 2022 and January 2023 showed a massive 1 million+ adjustment increase in population.
The last time we saw a major deviation from the normal increase was in January 2012, when the population increased by 1.685 million, possibly because Obama legalized a bunch of illegal aliens at that time. Is it possible that the 2017 -2021 downward adjustments are the result of Trump’s stricter immigration policies?
Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)
The LFPR can have a major impact on the actual level of unemployment. This month it is down from 62.7% to 62.5%.
Tom Thomas, one of our readers reminds us that if you want to compare U-3 numbers, you have to do it in light of the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR). He said, “since U-3 only measures those who are actively looking for a job, if the labor force declines (i.e. lots of people stop looking) the U-3 rate will appear better than it actually is. So, in order to compare two time periods, you have to adjust for the LFPR.”
For more information, see Labor Force Participation Rate.
Data Collection Methods:
For Calculating Unemployment, the BLS says theyinterview “60,000 different households statistically calculated to represent the entire country.” However, they only contact about 15,000 of these households each month, and then use statistical modeling to estimate the U.S. unemployment rate from this data sample. “The households in the pool are rotated to limit the burden on any specific family.” In addition to questions about employment status, the CPS tracks work experience, annual earnings, school enrollment, and whether school-aged children are working, etc.
See Is the Government Fudging Unemployment Numbers? for the comparison of Gallup numbers vs. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers.
Historical Context
According to Shadowstats, the government is really underestimating unemployment by even more than our numbers suggest since “long-term discouraged workers were defined out of official existence in 1994.” The new U-6 numbers only include short-term discouraged workers. Once we understand that the Labor Force Participation Rate does not include “Long \-Term Unemployed”, we can see that a big part of the decline in the BLS numbers is accounted for simply by redefining long-term unemployed individuals as out of the labor force, and so as if by magic the unemployment rate falls. But the ShadowStats number, which refuses to ignore these people, remains steady.
See U-6 Unemployment Rate for more information on the broader U-6 unemployment calculation that includes these “discouraged” unemployed and gives a truer picture of the total unemployment situation. Also, see the Misery index ( which includes Unemployment Rate+ Inflation Rate). The adjusted unemployment rate in January of 2009, when Obama was sworn in, was 7.8%. Subsequently, the rate reached a peak of 10.1%. The average unemployment rate during the Bush presidency was 5.3%, and during the Clinton presidency, it was 5.2%. In addition to looking at the unemployment rate, I prefer to look at the actual employment rate, which often shows a different picture, in that we can see how many people are actually employed and it is less easily manipulated since the number of people who have opted for retirement or just stopped looking for work is not a factor. See the Current Employment Data.
How the USGovernment Comes Up with the Current Unemployment Rate
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, they don’t actually track the unemployment numbers, but instead, they base the all-important “Unemployment Rate” on a survey. You would think they would collect the numbers from the 50 states who would get them from their unemployment offices. But that is not how it is done. Unemployment rates are calculated based on a random survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS). No one can accuse the government of being efficient, rather than calling the main office of 50 state offices (or having the 50 state numbers automatically reported). Instead, the government calls up 60,000 households every month and then estimates the unemployment rate based on that sample. According to the BLS,
Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. This practice avoids placing too heavy a burden on the households selected for the sample. After a household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, it leaves the sample for 8 months, and then is again interviewed for the same 4 calendar months a year later, before leaving the sample for good. This procedure results in approximately 75 percent of the sample remaining the same from month to month and 50 percent from year to year.
For more information on how the BLS performs the survey see BLS: How the Government Measures Unemployment Unemployment data is interesting but my question is always… yeah, but how many real people actually have jobs? In addition to calling 60,000 households, the government also performs a Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey where they collect data from employers. The CES survey sample is larger, and so the employment data is considered more reliable than the unemployment data. For more information, See: Current Employment Data Historical Employment Data Chart The Misery index measures inflation plus unemployment and is a good measure of the discomfort of the country’s population. Current Employment vs. Unemployment Chart Are they just two sides of the same coin, or is there more? Sometimes the best thing to do during times of economic decline is to go back to school and wait out the decline while improving your skills at the same time. SeeThe Difference a Degree Makes in Unemployment Levels for more information on how a degree might help.
Source: US-BLS Current Unemployment Rate Data
