Are Treasury bonds a good investment in 2023?
Over the second half of 2023, interest rates may vacillate as economic and inflationary metrics are released, but our forecast is that the interest rate on 10-year Treasuries will generally follow a downward trend which will continue into 2024 and 2025.
The pros and cons of taking refuge in cash now that yields are hovering above 5%. Cash investors haven't had it this good in years. After a long period of near-zero yields, yields on the three-month Treasury bill have been as high as 5.5% so far in 2023—their highest level since December 2000.
Another common type of investment you might consider adding to your portfolio: bonds. And some experts argue that this particular investment class is on the up and up and worth considering ahead of the new year.
Are Treasury bonds a good investment? Generally, yes, but that depends on your investing goals, your risk tolerance and your portfolio's makeup. With investing, in many cases, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return. This applies here.
DSP Strategic Bond Fund, the topper in the category, offered 7.92% in 2023. ICICI Prudential All Seasons Bond Fund gave 7.58%. Quantum Dynamic Bond Fund gave around 7.22%. SBI Dynamic Bond Fund gave 7.11%.
The biggest downside of investing in T-bills is that you're going to get a lower rate of return compared to other investments, such as certificates of deposit, money market funds, corporate bonds or stocks. If you're looking to make some serious gains in your portfolio, T-bills aren't going to cut it.
Currently, Treasuries maturing in less than a year yield about the same as a CD. Therefore, all things considered, it likely makes more sense to choose Treasuries over CDs, depending on your situation, because of the tax benefits and liquidity when considering very short-term maturities.
When rates go up, bond prices typically go down, and when interest rates decline, bond prices typically rise. This is a fundamental principle of bond investing, which leaves investors exposed to interest rate risk—the risk that an investment's value will fluctuate due to changes in interest rates.
Key Takeaways. Both certificates of deposit (CDs) and bonds are considered safe-haven investments with modest returns and low risk. When interest rates are high, a CD may yield a better return than a bond. When interest rates are low, a bond may be the higher-paying investment.
Including bonds in your investment mix makes sense even when interest rates may be rising. Bonds' interest component, a key aspect of total return, can help cushion price declines resulting from increasing interest rates.
What is the downside to buying Treasury bonds?
Tax considerations: If you buy a bond at a discount and either hold it until maturity or sell it at a profit, that capital gain will be subject to federal and state taxes. Interest rate risks: As are all bonds, Treasury bonds are subject to price volatility as a result of changes in market interest rates.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
You can get your cash for an EE or I savings bond any time after you have owned it for 1 year. However, the longer you hold the bond, the more it earns for you (for up to 30 years for an EE or I bond). Also, if you cash in the bond in less than 5 years, you lose the last 3 months of interest.
| ETF | Expense ratio | Yield to maturity |
|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) | 0.18% | 5.4% |
| SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) | 0.03% | 4.5% |
| SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) | 0.03% | 4.2% |
| SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL) | 0.03% | 4.5% |
| ETF | Expense Ratio | Yield to maturity |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (UTEN) | 0.15% | 3.8%* |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2033 Term Treasury ETF (IBTO) | 0.07% | 4.1% |
| Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CLIP) | 0.07% | 5.5% |
| iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) | 0.15% | 4.4% |
| Fund (ticker) | Expense Ratio |
|---|---|
| Fidelity Capital & Income Fund (fa*gIX) | 0.93% |
| American Funds Emerging Markets Bond Fund Class F-1 (EBNEX) | 0.95% |
| T. Rowe Price Credit Opportunities Fund (PRCPX) | 0.81% |
| American Century High Income Fund Investor Class (AHIVX) | 0.78% |
It's always possible to lose money when investing, but the chance of that happening with a government bond is close to zero. The U.S. government has an excellent history of repaying its debts, so you can count on your investment being safe.
Treasury bonds are considered risk-free assets, meaning there is no risk that the investor will lose their principal. In other words, investors that hold the bond until maturity are guaranteed their principal or initial investment.
Interest from corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds interest is typically taxable at the federal level. U.S. Treasuries are exempt from state and local income taxes. Most interest income earned on municipal bonds is exempt from federal income taxes.
Interest income from Treasury bills, notes and bonds - This interest is subject to federal income tax, but is exempt from all state and local income taxes.
Do banks charge to buy T-bills?
When you buy T-bills through your bank, it may charge you additional fees and expenses such as sales commissions or transaction charges. These extra costs can add up over time and eat into your returns on your investment.
Treasury bills are short-term investments, with a maturity between a few weeks to a year from the time of purchase. Treasury bonds are more varied and are longer-term investments that are held for more than a year. Treasury bonds also have a higher interest payout than bills.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Key Takeaways. Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
